金沙总站6155

【文章题目】State-owned Enterprises in China as Macroeconomic Stabilizers: Their Special Function in Times of Economic Policy Uncertainty

【文章简介】过去四十年中国经济快速增长，与此同时，中国也拥有全球最多的国有企业，并且国有企业在整个经济中占据重要地位。然而，大多数现有文献认为，与民营企业相比，国有企业效率较低。中国为何能在保持大量国有企业的同时实现快速且持续的经济增长？要回答这个问题，我们需要从经济效率以外的其他角度认识国有企业的作用。本文认为，在经济政策不确定性高企时期，国有企业发挥了“宏观经济稳定器”的功能。使用2008年至2019年的中国上市公司数据，本文验证了国有企业在稳定就业、投资、增长、财务运行和预期等五个方面的“宏观经济稳定器”功能。当经济政策不确定性上升时，与民营企业相比，国有企业的雇佣员工人数增长更快，投资支出增长更多，业绩波动更少，流动比率更低，并且企业预期更稳定。我们采用中美贸易争端爆发作为经济政策不确定性的代理变量，使用三重差分方法进一步验证了国有企业身份和其稳定宏观经济的经营活动之间的因果关系。本文的发现为更好解释21世纪国有企业的功能提供了一个新的视角。

China has many state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades. China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency of SOEs. This study shows that, in periods of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), SOEs have performed a special function as "macroeconomic stabilizers." Using Chinese listed firm data from 2008 to 2019, we investigate five aspects of SOEs' unique functions as macroeconomic stabilizers: employment, investment, growth, financial operation, and expectations. When EPU increased, SOEs had more employment, higher investment expenditure, lower performance volatility, more robust financial structures, and more stable expectations than private firms. We employ the US-China trade war as an exogenous shock on EPU to conduct a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the problem of potentially omitted variables. The findings of this study provide a new perspective to better explain the functions of SOEs in the 21st century.

【关键词】中国；经济政策不确定性；雇佣；投资；国有企业

【文章作者】方明月、阮睿

【作者单位】金沙总站6155，中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心

【发表期刊】China & World Economy

【全文下载】China World Economy.pdf